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Weekly Update

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Weekly Letter Archives

Weekly Update 16-Jan-2026

  • Quiet index, more rotations

  • AI productivity and cyclical growth continue

  • Trump cranks up the populist rhetoric, probably Art of the Deal

  • Are Earnings expectations still too low?

  • Divergences in Earnings growth

  • Are higher interest rates helping equities? (No, but they are not hurting)

  • Real Disposable Income Growth is accelerating (for now)

  • Inflation is still cooling

  • Housing Data is still not going anywhere

  • Retail Sales are still good

  • Quick Hits

  • Where did all the crypto money go?

  • Chart Crime of the week

  • The economy is starting off 2026 like this guy

It was another quiet week on the headline index, but there were plenty of headlines and rotations under the surface.  The big picture points to the same theme we have been touting:  Stronger, more broad economic growth with cooling inflation.  And this growth still overlaps among Artificial Intelligence and traditionally cyclical sectors.  On the AI front, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported great earnings and boosted its forecast over the foreseeable future.  As we have said many times, TSM sits at the center of the AI universe (more so than Nvidia now…which is saying a lot).  The rotation out of software continues.  Anthropic (one of the leaders in creating AI for businesses) is using its Claude Code engine to write code to improve its Claude Code engine.  And the economic data supports the cyclical acceleration:  Strong Retail Sales, strong Real Disposable Income growth, and cooling inflation are the headliners.  Even the flakey business surveys are showing improved sentiment (on top of the strong spending).

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Chalk Creek Partners LLC

Registered Investment Advisor

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Carlisle C. Wysong C.F.A.

Managing Partner

701 Rivercrest Drive

Fort Worth, TX 76107

+1 (917) 859-2596

ccw@chalkcreekpartners.com

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The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal or tax advice, and is intended to be general market commentary.  Information presented is believed to be factual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not be regarded as a complete analysis of the subjects discussed. All expressions of opinion reflect the judgment of the authors as of the date of preparation and are subject to change. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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