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Weekly Update

Weekly Update 20-Sept-2023

  • Is the equity market listening to the Fed now?

  • Japan Earnings look the best

  • Credit Card data delinquencies hitting where it hurts

  • Housing data is mixed but still turning negative

  • Obviously, it is the government doing it!

  • Retail Sales follow-up

  • Is China turning?  (We doubt it)

  • Are the Chinese stockpiling oil and refined products?

  • Quick Hits

  • Where did all the crypto money go?

  • Chart Crime of the week

Just when the market lulls you back to sleep, it decides to change its mind (and act rationally).  Last week we commented that some bad economic data was being ignored by equities but not bonds.  The toxic combination of higher rates and a slowing economy was lost on the stock market.  We are still seeing some high-profile earnings disappointments.  But these have not translated into widespread worries (Adobe was the latest this week after Oracle last week).  The Chinese stock market cannot get out of its own way despite another barrage of mini-stimulus measures.  (There was some improvement in economic data in August.  But the real estate market is still in disarray.  And this sector accounts for about 30% of the economy.)  In the US, worker strikes are obviously a problem at a company level, but they rarely amount to much on a larger scale.  But when Big Labor channels its inner Lenin, inflation fears are stoked.  Strikes resulted in 4.1mm days of missed work in August.  This is the largest monthly total since August 2000.  The usual monthly rate is anywhere from 0 to 500k.  Not to mention, the US government might shutdown (a gentle reminder that not many of our lives change when this happens…but the short-term result is a drag on the economy).  The much-hyped IPO market is turning into a dud unless you are one of the elites that gets stock on the deal.  Of course, the ones hyping the deals are the ones selling the deals.

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