• Volatility spins itself into a frenzy

• Tariff talk is somehow now scary

• Recession is an easy answer after you sell

• Is the Atlanta Fed right?  Is the economy crashing?  No.

• What exactly will tariffs and DOGE do to the economy?

• More panicky selling

• Uncertainty feeds the beast

• Durable Goods Orders are growing

• Inflation is still picking up; Spending is not

• Fed Surveys change their tune

• Quick Hits

• Where did all the crypto money go?

• Chart Crime of the week

The same narratives that spun Volatility into a frenzy intensified this week.  The two focal points were 1) Trump actually did what he said he was going to do on tariffs 2) Recession fears increased - highlighted by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker falling off a cliff to -2.8% growth for the current quarter.  We think both are overblown.  The one thing we know about Trump is to expect the uncertainty.  After announcing the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would proceed as planned, one day later he backtracked on some of the policy again (exempting autos for a month with respect to Canada and Mexico).  During Trump’s address of the joint session of Congress, he did acknowledge some economic “disturbance” while the economy adjusts (we have been saying this about DOGE, too, assuming it is successful in cutting meaningful spending).  But his repeated focus has been on border security (more talk about fentanyl than immigrants lately).  More to the point, we think he saw how the markets reacted, and he decided to make it clearer that these policies were not meant to be blind with respect to economic harm.