• Iran headlines are likely temporary

• AI questions, credit worries, and stagflation fears might linger

• Retail is doing what it does best

• Is the bottom of the K getting better?

• More dispersion seen in stock Vol vs index Vol

• Earnings were great, and guidance looks good, too

• So much for the rebound in Employment

• Inflation stays cool for now

• Quick Hits

• Where did all the crypto money go?

• Chart Crime of the week

• You’d be better off gambling against this guy

The erratic headlines surrounding the war in Iran continue to dominate the market.  But we still think a good chunk of the jittery nerves are born out of the confusion around the Artificial Intelligence trajectory, credit worries, and hints of stagflation in the economy.  In the AI world, Oracle put a lot of worries to bed with impressive earnings and strong guidance.  Of course, the company also did this six months ago before it proceeded to fall 60% (and it also announced it is scrapping some of the splashy infrastructure initiatives already announced).  Moreover, solid data center spending does not mean software companies will be able to trade at lofty multiples if their future growth rates are no longer sure things.  Private Credit lenders are realizing that retail clients are not the perfect buyers of their long-dated products.  JP Morgan has started to write down some loans and is restricting collateral.  Investors in a $33b Cliffwater fund, a private credit firm that few have heard of before this week, just requested to redeem 14% of the assets (as the great Lee Corso would say, not so fast!).  This type of bank-run of activity only feeds on itself and spills over to other financial stocks (as more sponsors are cutting prices of loans in the portfolios/funds, more retail clients want their money back). A Canadian subprime lender named Goeasy (alert: stupid name!) is writing off $200mm in shoddy consumer loans.  And while economic data had been steadily improving, an awful February Employment Report and the impending spike higher in inflation are looming larger than the good data from the recent past.  Right on cue, the Atlanta Fed lowered its GDPNow tracker for Q1 to +2.1% down from +3.0% last week.