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Weekly Update

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Glossary of Jargon

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Meaning of Chalk Creek

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Quick Hits

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Weekly Letter Archives

Weekly Update 22-Jan-2025

  • Momentum from the good inflation report continues

  • Earnings are strong

  • Politics are a rare positive

  • Fear and Greed index flashing Fear?  Check your source

  • Retail Sales are resilient

  • Housing data is still sending mixed signals

  • China might be improving, maybe

  • Quick Hits

  • Where did all the crypto money go?

  • Chart Crime of the week

The market ramped up its momentum after last week’s good inflation report.  Adding to the gains was a combination of good economic data (but not so strong to elicit inflation fears), continued Earnings strength, and a Trump transition that has mostly followed his policy platform.  The consumer is still pushing Retail Sales.  Housing data is mixed, but there are some positive signs even with mortgage rates over 7%.  The next wave of Financial stocks have reported just as strongly as the first wave.  Taiwan Semiconductor, maybe the best barometer for AI demand (“it’s called a thermometer”), reported another strong quarter with even better forward guidance.  Even Richemont, the Swiss luxury goods maker, had a surprisingly large beat on its earnings.  Strong sales in its Cartier division prove the K-shape is alive and well.  Even Target gave a positive outlook (the stock was negative at first, but it has rallied back since).  Apple has been one spot of weakness as many are speculating about poor earnings to come.  (China demand might be slowing, the AI rollout might be underwhelming, and the stock is probably expensive…but Apple always seems to find a way to impressive and punish those that sold.)

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